If we take a scalping system that makes a median of twenty pips on a rewarding trade and loses a median 30 pips on a loss-making trade, with eighty percent of its trades being worthwhile and only twenty percent losses, this is the edge for this system:
Edge = (80% x 20 pips) – (20% x 30 pips) = 10 pips
That’d be a lucrative system and a really good one to use if you were interested in turning into a scalper. For example, you may come across a system that worked the other way, with plenty of small losses, say 60% losses of ten pips each time, and then some larger gains, making say 40 pips average profit on successful trades. At the end of the month you might research the unproven results from a back test over the month to find out how your own results varied from the back tests. This would give you an idea of how successful you’d be operating that system for real. Comparing with back test results for a similar period would prevent you from throwing out a system just because it happened to have a bad month. This could be a handy comparison when picking the best forex trading system from a bunch of systems that are profitable in theory.